Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series
47 Pages Posted: 11 Sep 2001 Last revised: 3 Sep 2022
Date Written: November 1987
Abstract
This paper uses simple time series techniques to analyze changes in the short-run behavior of 38 physical production series for 1889-1984. The main finding is that fluctuations in these output series in the periods 1889-1914 and 1947-1984 are very similar, while those in the period 1922- 1939 are anomalous. Relative to the prewar era, the postwar era exhibits only a slight damping of fluctuations and no increase in the persistence of short-run movements. At the same time, the correlation between the growth rates of the 38 goods is very low in both the prewar and postwar eras and has declined slightly over time.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?
-
Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy
-
Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?
By Shaghil Ahmed, Andrew T. Levin, ...
-
On the Causes of the Increased Stability of the U.S. Economy
By James A. Kahn, Margaret Mary Mcconnell, ...
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences
By Diego A. Comin and Thomas Philippon
-
The Estimation of Prewar Gnp: Methodology and New Evidence
By Nathan S. Balke and Robert J. Gordon