Income Shocks and HIV in Africa

33 Pages Posted: 22 Jun 2015

See all articles by Marshall Burke

Marshall Burke

University of California, Berkeley; Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Erick Gong

Middlebury College

Kelly Jones

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: June 2015

Abstract

We examine how variation in local economic conditions has shaped the AIDS epidemic in Africa. Using data from over 200,000 individuals across 19 countries, we match biomarker data on individuals' serostatus to information on local rainfall shocks, a large source of income variation for rural households. We estimate infection rates in HIVā€endemic rural areas increase by 11% for every recent drought, an effect that is statistically and economically significant. Income shocks explain up to 20% of variation in HIV prevalence across African countries, suggesting existing approaches to HIV prevention could be bolstered by helping households manage income risk better.

Suggested Citation

Burke, Marshall and Gong, Erick and Jones, Kelly, Income Shocks and HIV in Africa (June 2015). The Economic Journal, Vol. 125, Issue 585, pp. 1157-1189, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2621095 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12149

Marshall Burke

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Erick Gong

Middlebury College ( email )

Middlebury, VT 05753
United States

Kelly Jones (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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