Ideology and Dissent Among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes

32 Pages Posted: 24 Jun 2015

See all articles by Ha Quyen Ngo

Ha Quyen Ngo

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Niklas Potrafke

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Marina Riem

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Christoph Schinke

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Date Written: June 23, 2015

Abstract

Economists, and also economic research institutes, differ in their attitudes towards desirability of economic policies. The policy positions taken can often be determined by ideology. We examine economic policy positions by investigating minority votes in the Joint Economic Forecast of German economic research institutes. The dataset consists of voting behavior over the period 1950-2014. Our results show that the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) submitted by far the most minority votes, consistent with the popular impression that the DIW exhibits a preference for demand-oriented economic policy and has differed from the other leading economic research institutes in this respect. For example, the rate of minority voting of the DIW corresponded to some 300% of the rate of minority voting of the RWI Essen. Minority votes display an economic research institute’s identity. When institutes are known to be associated with specific economic-policy positions, politicians, clients, and voters well understand how to assess the bias in the policy advice that is given.

Keywords: decision making in committees, minority voting, policy preferences, ideology, Joint Economic Forecast of German economic research institutes

JEL Classification: D720, I230

Suggested Citation

Ngo, Ha Quyen and Potrafke, Niklas and Riem, Marina and Schinke, Christoph, Ideology and Dissent Among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes (June 23, 2015). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5393, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2622038

Ha Quyen Ngo

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Niklas Potrafke (Contact Author)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Marina Riem

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

Christoph Schinke

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany

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