Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data

E. Tomczyk, T. Doligalski, Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data, [in:] Sł. Partycki (ed.), E-społeczeństwo w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej. Teraźniejszość i perspektywy rozwoju, Wydawnictwo KUL, Lublin 2015, p. 228-236.

9 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2015

See all articles by Emilia Tomczyk

Emilia Tomczyk

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)

Tymoteusz Doligalski

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH)

Date Written: May 25, 2015

Abstract

Based on search queries data and a macroeconomic index (PMI) we attempt to predict new car registrations. As the forecasting horizon is short, the modelling is performed in accordance with the idea of nowcasting. The study covers 48 monthly observations for sixteen car producers present on Polish market. The proposed model explains the level of new car registrations for the five major makes and allows to forecast the number of registrations for the current and next month.

Keywords: nowcasting, prediction, modelling, car, automotive, demand, registrations, Internet, search, Google, Poland, CEE, PMI

Suggested Citation

Tomczyk, Emilia and Doligalski, Tymoteusz, Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data (May 25, 2015). E. Tomczyk, T. Doligalski, Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data, [in:] Sł. Partycki (ed.), E-społeczeństwo w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej. Teraźniejszość i perspektywy rozwoju, Wydawnictwo KUL, Lublin 2015, p. 228-236.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2622928

Emilia Tomczyk

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) ( email )

aleja Niepodleglosci 162
PL-Warsaw, 02-554
Poland

Tymoteusz Doligalski (Contact Author)

Warsaw School of Economics (SGH) ( email )

aleja Niepodleglosci 162
PL-Warsaw, 02-554
Poland

HOME PAGE: http://www.doligalski.net/

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