Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data
E. Tomczyk, T. Doligalski, Predicting New Car Registrations: Nowcasting with Google Search and Macroeconomic Data, [in:] Sł. Partycki (ed.), E-społeczeństwo w Europie Środkowej i Wschodniej. Teraźniejszość i perspektywy rozwoju, Wydawnictwo KUL, Lublin 2015, p. 228-236.
9 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2015
Date Written: May 25, 2015
Based on search queries data and a macroeconomic index (PMI) we attempt to predict new car registrations. As the forecasting horizon is short, the modelling is performed in accordance with the idea of nowcasting. The study covers 48 monthly observations for sixteen car producers present on Polish market. The proposed model explains the level of new car registrations for the five major makes and allows to forecast the number of registrations for the current and next month.
Keywords: nowcasting, prediction, modelling, car, automotive, demand, registrations, Internet, search, Google, Poland, CEE, PMI
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