Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries

31 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2015

See all articles by Ernesto Crivelli

Ernesto Crivelli

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Ruud A. De Mooij

International Monetary Fund (IMF); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation

Michael Keen

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

Date Written: May 2015

Abstract

International corporate tax issues are now prominent in public debate, most notably with the current G20-OECD project addressing Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (‘BEPS’). But, while there is considerable empirical evidence for advanced countries on the cross-country fiscal externalities at the heart of these issues, there is almost none for developing countries. This paper uses panel data for 173 countries over 33 years to explore the magnitude and nature of international fiscal externalities, with a particular focus on developing countries and applying a new method enabling a distinguishing between spillover effects through real investment decisions and through avoidance techniques — and quantification of the revenue impact of the latter. The results suggest that spillover effects on the tax base are substantially larger in developing countries than in advanced, and that they imply a likely loss of revenue from BEPS that is both substantially larger for them.

Keywords: Tax bases, Transnational corporations, Corporate profits, Corporate taxes, International taxation, Developing countries, Cross country analysis, Econometric models, Panel analysis, Corporate income tax, BEPS, tax avoidance, international taxation., tax rates, revenue

JEL Classification: F21, F23, H25

Suggested Citation

Crivelli, Ernesto and De Mooij, Ruud A. and Keen, Michael, Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries (May 2015). IMF Working Paper No. 15/118. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2623804

Ernesto Crivelli (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Ruud A. De Mooij

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://people.few.eur.nl/demooij/

Michael Keen

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)

7 Ridgmount Street
London, WC1E 7AE
United Kingdom

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