Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting
30 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2001
Date Written: December 2000
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
Keywords: Econometrics, Economics, Forecasting, Models, Uncertainty
JEL Classification: C1, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation