An Interpretation of the Cieslak-Povala Return-Predicting Factor

12 Pages Posted: 5 Jul 2015

See all articles by Riccardo Rebonato

Riccardo Rebonato

University of Oxford - Mathematical Institute

Date Written: July 3, 2015

Abstract

This paper presents a simple reformulation of the restricted Cieslak and Povala (2010) return-predicting factor which retains by construction exactly the same (impressive) explanatory power as the original one, but affords an alternative and attractive interpretation. What determines the future returns, the new factor shows, is a function of the distance of the yield-curve level and the slope not from a fixed reference level, but from a conditional one, determined by a function of the long-term inflation.

The decomposition also allows a clear attribution of the predictive power of the Cieslak and Povala factor between the conditional level and slope deviations.

Finally, the new reformulation shows that once the conditionality is taken into account, level deviations are important predictors of excess returns. (Hardly any predictability was found in earlier studies for the unconditional level.)

Keywords: bond excess return, Cochrane and Piazzesi tent factor, return predicting factor, bond pricing

Suggested Citation

Rebonato, Riccardo, An Interpretation of the Cieslak-Povala Return-Predicting Factor (July 3, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2626497 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2626497

Riccardo Rebonato (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Mathematical Institute ( email )

United Kingdom

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