China's 'New Normal': Challenges Ahead for Asia-Pacific Trade

United Nations ESCAP Trade Insights, Issue No.11

11 Pages Posted: 9 Jul 2015

See all articles by Aman Saggu

Aman Saggu

Mahidol University - International College; United Nations - Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP); University of Glasgow - Adam Smith Business School; University of St. Andrews - School of Economics and Finance; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Finance; University of London, Royal Holloway College - Department of Economics

Witada Anukoonwattaka

United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

Date Written: July 9, 2015

Abstract

China has grown to become an economic powerhouse and engine of global demand. However, China’s projected GDP growth rates are now anticipated to remain below 7% per annum over the next five years. This issue of Trade Insights examines how the ‘new normal’ of lower economic growth in China will impact on the prospects for trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Compared to the hypothetical scenario that China’s economic growth returns to pre-crisis levels within the next five years (by 2019), forecasts show that China’s ‘new normal’ (7% p.a.) would lead to a slowdown in real total Asia-Pacific trade growth from 7.0% to 5.9% by 2019.

Keywords: International Trade, United Nations, Asia-Pacific Region, Commodity Trade, Forecasting, China, New Normal

JEL Classification: F10, F14, F43

Suggested Citation

Saggu, Aman and Anukoonwattaka, Witada, China's 'New Normal': Challenges Ahead for Asia-Pacific Trade (July 9, 2015). United Nations ESCAP Trade Insights, Issue No.11. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2628613

Aman Saggu (Contact Author)

Mahidol University - International College ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://www.muic.mahidol.ac.th/eng/

United Nations - Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) ( email )

Rajadamnern Nok Avenue
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Bangkok, 10200
Thailand

University of Glasgow - Adam Smith Business School ( email )

Glasgow, Scotland
United Kingdom

University of St. Andrews - School of Economics and Finance ( email )

The Scores, Castlecliff
St. Andrews, Fife KY16 8RD
United Kingdom

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Finance ( email )

London
Great Britain

University of London, Royal Holloway College - Department of Economics ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Witada Anukoonwattaka

United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ( email )

The United Nations Building
Rajadamnern Nok Avenue
Bangkok, 10200
Thailand

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