The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates

46 Pages Posted: 16 Jul 2015 Last revised: 2 Aug 2016

See all articles by Jordi Blanes i Vidal

Jordi Blanes i Vidal

London School of Economics

Tom Kirchmaier

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance; Copenhagen Business School

Date Written: December 9, 2015

Abstract

Police agencies devote vast resources to minimising the time that it takes them to attend the scene of a crime. Despite this, the long-standing consensus is that police response time has no meaningful effect on the likelihood of catching offenders. We revisit this question using a uniquely rich dataset from the Greater Manchester Police. To identify causal effects, we use a novel strategy that exploits discontinuities in distance to the response station across locations next to each other, but on different sides of division boundaries. Contrary to previous evidence, we find large and strongly significant effects: in our preferred estimate, a 10% increase in response time leads to a 4.6 percentage points decrease in the likelihood of clearing the crime. We find stronger effects for thefts than for violent offenses, although the effects are large for every type of crime. We find suggestive evidence in support of two mechanisms: the likelihood of an immediate arrest and the likelihood that a suspect will be named by a victim or witness both increase as response time becomes faster.

Keywords: Police, Crime, Organisational Performance

JEL Classification: D29, K40

Suggested Citation

Blanes i Vidal, Jordi and Kirchmaier, Tom, The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates (December 9, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2630987 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2630987

Jordi Blanes i Vidal

London School of Economics ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
+44 (0) 779 51 61 034 (Phone)

Tom Kirchmaier (Contact Author)

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
+44 207 955 6854 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/tomkirchmaier/home

Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelænshaven 24A, 3rd floor
Copenhagen
Denmark

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