中國住宅投資引領經濟增長嗎?(Does Housing Investment Lead Economic Growth in China?)

25 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2015

See all articles by Qingyong Zhang

Qingyong Zhang

Renmin University of China - School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Huanhuan Zheng

National University of Singapore

Date Written: December 15, 2011

Abstract

The Simplified Chinese version of this paper is available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2631939.

Chinese Abstract: (繁體中文摘要): 本文收集了1985-2009年中國各省、直轄市、自治區的數據,運用面板數據分析工具,對住宅投資與經濟增長之間的領先-滯後關係進行分析。研究結果表明,無論是1985-2009年全時段還是以1998年大規模房改為分界線的分時段,無論是全國各省市面板還是分區域的各省市面板,經濟增長引領住宅投資的單向Granger因果關係是穩定的;不同於一些研究和政策措施所主張、所暗示的住宅投資引領經濟增長的觀點,整體上,我們找不到證據來支持住宅投資帶動經濟增長的論點。所謂的“住宅引領增長假說”在我國並不成立,而我國自上世紀90年代中期以來一直大力促進住宅投資以帶動經濟增長、把住宅建設當作國民經濟的新增長點和支柱產業的政策值得反思。

English Abstract: Using Chinese provincial panel data from 1985 to 2009, this paper employs panel unit root tests, panel co-integration method and VECM to analyze the lead-lag relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China. Empirical results show that there is a stable uni-directional Granger-causality between housing investment and GDP in China, and the direction of Granger causality runs from GDP to housing investment, no matter whether it is at the national level or at the sub-regional level, no matter whether it is before or after the 1998 mass housing reform. These findings imply that "The Housing-led Growth Hypothesis" does not stand in China, and the policies formulated and enforced by the government to promote housing investment as a tool of economic development since the mid-1990s should be re-evaluated.

Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.

Keywords: Housing Investment; Economic Growth; Lead-lag Relationship; Granger Causality

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Qingyong and Zheng, Huanhuan, 中國住宅投資引領經濟增長嗎?(Does Housing Investment Lead Economic Growth in China?) (December 15, 2011). IGEF Working Paper No. 6. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2631930 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2631930

Qingyong Zhang

Renmin University of China - School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development ( email )

59 Zhongguancun Street
Beijing 100872
China

Huanhuan Zheng (Contact Author)

National University of Singapore ( email )

1E Kent Ridge Road
NUHS Tower Block Level 7
Singapore, 119228
Singapore

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