Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation

29 Pages Posted: 23 Jan 2002

See all articles by Kim B. Clark

Kim B. Clark

Harvard Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Brigham Young University Idaho

Lawrence H. Summers

Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS)

Date Written: July 1980

Abstract

Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.

Suggested Citation

Clark, Kim and Summers, Lawrence H., Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation (July 1980). NBER Working Paper No. w0514. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=263395

Kim Clark (Contact Author)

Harvard Business School ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Brigham Young University Idaho

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Lawrence H. Summers

Harvard University ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Harvard University - Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) ( email )

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