Russia’s Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios

32 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2015 Last revised: 1 Sep 2015

See all articles by Ozcan Saritas

Ozcan Saritas

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge

Liliana Proskuryakova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

S Sivaev

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Graduate School of Urban Studies and Planning

Date Written: July 23, 2015

Abstract

The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector.

Keywords: water resources, sustainable water systems, water use, water goods and services, scenarios, Foresight, Russia.

JEL Classification: H4, H5, H87, I30, M11, R20, R52, Q01, Q02, Q15, Q18, Q22, Q25, Q26, Q27, Q53, Q54, Q55

Suggested Citation

Saritas, Ozcan and Proskuryakova, Liliana Nikolaevna and Sivaev, S, Russia’s Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios (July 23, 2015). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 42/STI/2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2634935 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2634935

Ozcan Saritas

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge ( email )

Myasnitskaya st. 18
Moscow, 101000
Russia

Liliana Nikolaevna Proskuryakova (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, 101000
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.hse.ru/en/org/persons/6101556/

S Sivaev

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Graduate School of Urban Studies and Planning ( email )

Russia

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