The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective

National Strategies Observer No.1/Vol.1, 2015

9 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2015

See all articles by Cristian Nita

Cristian Nita

Romanian Academy - Institute for World Economy

Date Written: April 28, 2015

Abstract

Besides the main current challenges of the security environment generated by regional conflicts, instability or tensions, there are asymmetric threats which are already traditional, as well as new threats determined by the rapid pace of the technological advancement and by the proliferation of the new technologies. In this context, one of the few certainties in the less and less predictable present security environment is that the intelligence analysis plays an essential role in reducing the uncertainties that the Information Age has generated or amplified. The elaboration of any analysis concerning the risk factors for national security in the period 2014-2020, from the perspective of the specific scopes of interest (political-military, economic, social, environmental and technological), shall pursue to provide strategic knowledge to the decision factors. In this context, the methodology of research proposes to analyse, by the use of the scenario planning, the evolution of certain processes or phenomena at the national and regional level; to signal the appearance or amplification of negative effects or of potential risks for the security interests of the country and of its allies; to foresee the manifestation forms of the threats/risks for the national security on medium and long term; to supply useful forecasts for supporting the political, economic or social decisions. In general, the scenario planning is used for exploring the possible manifestation conditions of a situation, starting from a set of proposals/working hypotheses, each scenario representing a distinct plausible future.

Keywords: national security, security environment, strategic resources, transnational risks and threats

JEL Classification: A10

Suggested Citation

Nita, Cristian, The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective (April 28, 2015). National Strategies Observer No.1/Vol.1, 2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2637106

Cristian Nita (Contact Author)

Romanian Academy - Institute for World Economy ( email )

Romania

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