The Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agriculture: A Ricardian Study at Microregion Level

31 Pages Posted: 30 Jul 2015

See all articles by Emanuele Massetti

Emanuele Massetti

Georgia Institute of Technology; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Rosanna do Carmo Nascimento Guiducci

Brazilian Agricultural Research Coporation - Embrapa

Aryeverton Fortes de Oliveira

Brazilian Agricultural Research Coporation - Embrapa

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies; Yale University

Date Written: December 2013

Abstract

We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a two-stage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and non-significant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.

Suggested Citation

Massetti, Emanuele and Nascimento Guiducci, Rosanna do Carmo and Fortes de Oliveira, Aryeverton and Mendelsohn, Robert O., The Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agriculture: A Ricardian Study at Microregion Level (December 2013). CMCC Research Paper No. 200. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2637287 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2637287

Emanuele Massetti (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

685 Cherry St.
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Rosanna do Carmo Nascimento Guiducci

Brazilian Agricultural Research Coporation - Embrapa ( email )

Brazil

Aryeverton Fortes de Oliveira

Brazilian Agricultural Research Coporation - Embrapa ( email )

Brazil

Robert O. Mendelsohn

Yale University - School of Forestry & Environmental Studies ( email )

195 Prospect Street
New Haven, CT 06511
United States

Yale University ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States
2034325128 (Phone)

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