What Drives the Global Official/Policy Interest Rate?
12 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2015 Last revised: 3 Aug 2015
Date Written: July 1, 2015
We construct a GFAVAR model with newly released global data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to investigate the drivers of official/policy interest rate. We find that 62% of movement in global official/policy interest rates is attributed to changes in global monetary aggregates (21%), oil prices (18%), global output (15%) and global prices (8%). Global official/policy interest rates respond significantly to increases in global output and prices and oil prices. Increases in global policy interest rates are associated with reductions in global prices and global output. The response in official/policy interest rate for the emerging countries is more to global inflation, for the advanced countries (excluding the U.S.) is more to global output, and for the U.S. is to both global output and inflation.
Keywords: Global interest rate, global monetary aggregates, oil prices, GFAVAR
JEL Classification: E44, E50, Q43
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation