Africa's Rising Demand for Wheat: Trends, Drivers, and Policy Implications

33 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2015

See all articles by Nicole Mason

Nicole Mason

Michigan State University - Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics

T. Jayne

Michigan State University

Bekele Shiferaw

Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)

Date Written: September 2015

Abstract

This article analyses trends in wheat consumption and imports in sub‐Saharan Africa since 1980, and estimates the economic and demographic determinants of this rising demand for wheat. Results point to rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing women's labour‐force participation as key drivers. Urban wheat‐expenditure shares generally exceed rural ones and SSA's demand is met largely by imports and partly through domestic production on large‐scale farms. Rising demand may therefore entail few farm–non‐farm synergies and minimal prospects to spur broad‐based economic development. The article concludes by discussing policy options for African countries to meet their staple food needs while also promoting pro‐poor agricultural growth.

Keywords: Wheat, structural grain deficit, urbanisation, income growth, women's labour force participation, farm‐nonfarm linkages, sub‐Saharan Africa

Suggested Citation

Mason, Nicole and Jayne, T. and Shiferaw, Bekele, Africa's Rising Demand for Wheat: Trends, Drivers, and Policy Implications (September 2015). Development Policy Review, Vol. 33, Issue 5, pp. 581-613, 2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2639421 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12129

Nicole Mason (Contact Author)

Michigan State University - Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics ( email )

MI
United States

T. Jayne

Michigan State University ( email )

Agriculture Hall
East Lansing, MI 48824-1122
United States

Bekele Shiferaw

Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) ( email )

P.O. Box 30772-00100
ICIPE - Duduville Campus, Kasarani
Nairobi
Kenya

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