An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice And Exchange Rate Volatility

33 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2001

See all articles by Helge Berger

Helge Berger

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business; De Nederlandsche Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: March 2000

Abstract

We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target countries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into account. Comparable results hold for a variant of the model that focuses on nominal rather than real determinants. We also look at the impact of "mistakes" in exchange rate regime choice on actual (nominal) exchange rate volatility. Countries that deviate from the model's predicted regime by choosing fixed instead of floating exchange rates generally suffer higher exchange rate volatility than other countries having a fixed exchange rate regime. We also investigate the role of such mistakes in within - sample episodes of current-account crises.

JEL Classification: E42, E52, F41

Suggested Citation

Berger, Helge and Sturm, Jan-Egbert and de Haan, Jakob, An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice And Exchange Rate Volatility (March 2000). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 263. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=263948

Helge Berger (Contact Author)

Free University Berlin - Department of Economics ( email )

Boltzmannstr. 20
Berlin 14195, 14195
Germany
+49 30 838-54037 (Phone)
+49 30 838-52782 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/berger/eng_index.htm

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
+49 89 9224 1266 (Phone)
+49 89 9224 1409 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Jan-Egbert Sturm

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich ( email )

Zurich
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.kof.ethz.ch

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.cesifo.de

Jakob de Haan

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

PO Box 800
Groningen, 9700 AV
Netherlands
+31 0 50 3633706 (Fax)

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

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