Achieving Sustainable Energy Security: 2030 Outlook for ASEAN, People Republic of China and India

41 Pages Posted: 4 Aug 2015

See all articles by Ying Fan

Ying Fan

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Institute of Policy and Management - Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

Biswa N. Bhattacharyay

Asian Development Bank Institute; Asian Development Bank; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: July 31, 2015

Abstract

The rapid growth of ASEAN economies, the People’s Republic of China and India (called ACI henceforth) — major drivers of Asia and the world economy — during the last five decades has caused significant strains on their scarce resources, particularly energy and contributed to serious problems of energy security, environmental degradation and climate change. In coming decades, these economies are expected to witness high growth, lack of adequate traditional energy sources, high dependence on imported energy, heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries, and rising transportation demands. In the coming decades, their energy demand may create serious challenges in terms of energy security. Adopting sustainable and innovative management practices and policies for key resources such as energy and mitigating environment and climate change problems are among major common challenges for all the ACI economies. This paper examines primarily on the ACI’s sustainable energy security outlook until 2030 through an overview of the ACI’s energy resources, production mix, consumption mix, emissions of greenhouse gases, and the state of the development of renewable, clean and new energy. The paper projects the ACI’s energy demand and its impact on carbon dioxide emissions until 2030 under different policy scenarios using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Furthermore, the paper evaluates ACI’s sustainable energy security situation through examining ACI’s energy self-sufficiency, dependence on imported energy, energy import diversification transportation security and energy infrastructure financing. Lastly it provides some policy recommendation to achieve sustainable energy security in ACI.

Keywords: energy demand and security, sustainable energy, ASEAN, India and People Republic of China, environment and climate change

JEL Classification: Q430, Q470, R130, Q500, Q310, Q200, O530, C680

Suggested Citation

Fan, Ying and Bhattacharyay, Biswa Nath., Achieving Sustainable Energy Security: 2030 Outlook for ASEAN, People Republic of China and India (July 31, 2015). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5457. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2639573

Ying Fan

Chinese Academy of Sciences - Institute of Policy and Management - Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research ( email )

52 Sanlihe Rd.
Datun Road, Anwai
Beijing, Xicheng District 100864
China

Biswa Nath. Bhattacharyay (Contact Author)

Asian Development Bank Institute ( email )

Kasumigaseki Building 8 Floor
3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, Tokyo 100-6008
Japan
(81-3)3593-5566 (Phone)
(81-3)3593-4270 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.adbi.org

Asian Development Bank ( email )

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Philippines

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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