Divergence

University of Pittsburgh Working Paper

42 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2001

See all articles by Patricia E. Beeson

Patricia E. Beeson

University of Pittsburgh - Office of the Provost

David N. DeJong

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Economics

Date Written: March 2001

Abstract

We use population data from the U.S. Census to track regional patterns of growth from 1790 through 1990. At the county level, we find that an initial general tendency towards population convergence lasting roughly through the 1800s becomes dramatically reversed: particularly in the post-WWII period, regional populations follow a distinct pattern of divergence. The finding of divergence depends crucially on two factors: the exclusion of transition dynamics and the level of aggregation. Regarding the former, state-level populations exhibit consistent patterns of transitional population growth over roughly two- to six-decade periods surrounding the admission of states to the union, followed by long periods of relatively steady growth. When transitional periods are included in our county-level analysis, divergent steady state patterns of growth become masked. Regarding the latter, when we aggregate to the state level, divergent county-level patterns of growth are again masked: even when transitional periods are excluded, state-level populations exhibit tendencies towards convergence.

Keywords: Population Growth, Agglomeration Economies, Endogenous Growth

JEL Classification: O47, O51

Suggested Citation

Beeson, Patricia E. and Dejong, David N., Divergence (March 2001). University of Pittsburgh Working Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=264313 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.264313

Patricia E. Beeson

University of Pittsburgh - Office of the Provost ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States

David N. Dejong (Contact Author)

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Economics ( email )

4A21 Forbes Quad
Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States
(412) 648-2242 (Phone)

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