A Test for Superior Predictive Ability
Brown Univ. Dept. of Economics Working Paper No. 01-06
43 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2004
Date Written: May 2005
We propose a new test for superior predictive ability. The new test compares favorable to the reality check for data snooping (RC), because the former is more powerful and less sensitive to poor and irrelevant alternatives. The improvements are achieved by two modifications of the RC. We employ a studentized test statistic that reduces the influence of erratic forecasts and invoke a sample dependent null distribution. The advantages of the new test are confirmed by Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical exercise, where we compare a large number of regression-based forecasts of annual US inflation to a simple random walk forecast. The random walk forecast is found to be inferior to regression-based forecasts and, interestingly, the best sample performance is achieved by models that have a Phillips curve structure.
Keywords: Testing for Superior Predictive Ability, Forecasting, Forecast Evaluation, Multiple Comparisons, Inequality Testing.
JEL Classification: C12, C32, C52, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation