Long Run Underperformance after Ipos and Optimistic Analysts' Forecasts

23 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2001

See all articles by Salim Chahine

Salim Chahine

American University of Beirut - Olayan School of Business

Date Written: March 2001

Abstract

Our empirical study examines whether analysts' optimistic forecasts explain the long-run abnormal return following IPOs. Analysts are expected to achieve a mean-zero forecast error. According to previous empirical studies, we find that analysts' earnings forecasts for firms going public have an upward bias. While this bias is larger for high-PER stocks over the first year following IPOs, it strongly increases for low-PER and medium-PER during the two-year period. Accordingly, we show that long-run abnormal return is positively correlated to the actual earnings changes and earnings forecasts revisions. Underperformance appears to be the result of stock price adjustment to the arrival of new information about the true earnings perspectives.

Suggested Citation

Chahine, Salim, Long Run Underperformance after Ipos and Optimistic Analysts' Forecasts (March 2001). EFMA 2001 Lugano Meetings. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=264573 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.264573

Salim Chahine (Contact Author)

American University of Beirut - Olayan School of Business ( email )

Bliss Street
Beirut 1107 2020
Lebanon
961-1-374-374 (Phone)

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