Spread-Driven Dividend Discount Models

Posted: 9 May 2001

See all articles by Martin L. Leibowitz

Martin L. Leibowitz

Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF)

Abstract

A key determinant of shareholder value is the franchise spread - the company's incremental return on new investments over the cost of capital. Explicitly incorporating this spread into the valuation process paves the way for a more compact, two-parameter formulation of the standard three-parameter dividend discount model. This transformation leads to a number of interesting implications. In particular, the spread-driven representation of the DDM (1) clarifies the role of growth-driven ROEs versus the role of spread-driven ROEs, (2) facilitates the development of two-phase models that reflect a typical company's earnings pattern, (3) shows how earnings growth and franchise spreads can underpin a wide range of P/E levels, (4) addresses the problem of artificially high P/Es being forced by low estimates for the risk premium and/or the inflation rate, (5) provides a useful expression for the growth rate of shareholder value, and (6) under certain stability conditions, leads to a pro forma equity duration that is - surprisingly - equal to the P/E itself.

JEL Classification: M41, G12

Suggested Citation

Leibowitz, Martin L., Spread-Driven Dividend Discount Models. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=265215

Martin L. Leibowitz (Contact Author)

Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association College Retirement Equities Fund (TIAA-CREF) ( email )

730 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017-3206
United States

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