Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?
53 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2001 Last revised: 5 Dec 2022
There are 2 versions of this paper
Date Written: April 2001
Abstract
We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as state variables. We use this model imposing a constant risk premium to examine the finite sample evidence on predictability. Not only do we find the short rate to be a relevant state variable theoretically, it is also the only robust short-run predictor of equity returns. The evidence in Lamont (1998) on earnings and dividend yield predictability is not robust to our increased sample period, does not survive finite sample corrections and does not extend to other countries. We find no evidence of long-horizon predictability once we account for finite sample influence. Finally, cross-country predictability appears stronger than predictability using local instruments.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson
-
Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles
By Ravi Bansal and Amir Yaron
-
Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Interference and Measurement
-
Resurrecting the (C)Capm: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia are Time-Varying
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson
-
Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?
By Geert Bekaert and Andrew Ang
-
Resurrecting the (C)Capm: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Wre Time-Varying
By Martin Lettau and Sydney C. Ludvigson