When is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile?

28 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2001 Last revised: 14 May 2001

See all articles by Linda S. Goldberg

Linda S. Goldberg

Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 2001

Abstract

Using bank-specific data on U.S. bank claims on individual foreign countries since the mid-1980s, this paper: 1) characterizes the size and portfolio diversification patterns of the U.S. banks engaging in foreign lending; and 2) econometrically explores the determinants of fluctuations in U.S. bank claims on a broad set of countries. U.S. bank claims on Latin American and Asian emerging markets, and on industrialized countries, are sensitive to U.S. macroeconomic conditions. When the United States grows rapidly, there is substitution between claims on industrialized countries and claims on the United States. The pattern of response of claims on emerging markets to U.S. conditions differs across banks of different sizes and across emerging market regions. Moreover, unlike U.S. bank claims on industrialized countries, we find that claims on emerging markets are not highly sensitive to local country GDP and interest rates.

Suggested Citation

Goldberg, Linda S., When is U.S. Bank Lending to Emerging Markets Volatile? (April 2001). NBER Working Paper No. w8209. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=265303

Linda S. Goldberg (Contact Author)

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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