Uncertain Flow Accounting and the IPCC Carbon Budget: A Note

Abstract

In this short note we argue that an uncertain flow account is balanced as long as the null hypothesis that the balance is zero cannot be rejected. In applying this principle to the IPCC carbon budget we find that it is not sensitive to fossil fuel emissions in the presence of uncertainties in natural flows because the flow account balances with and without these human emissions.

Keywords: global warming, climate change, carbon emissions, CO2 cycle, carbon budget, IPCC, uncertainty, uncertain flows, flow accounting