Market Timing with Moving Averages

39 Pages Posted: 3 Sep 2015

See all articles by Paskalis Glabadanidis

Paskalis Glabadanidis

University of Adelaide Business School; Financial Research Network (FIRN)

Multiple version iconThere are 5 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2015

Abstract

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14

Suggested Citation

Glabadanidis, Paskalis, Market Timing with Moving Averages (September 2015). International Review of Finance, Vol. 15, Issue 3, pp. 387-425, 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2655212 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12052

Paskalis Glabadanidis (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide Business School ( email )

10 Pulteney Street
Adelaide, South Australia 5005
Australia

Financial Research Network (FIRN)

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

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