The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods

26 Pages Posted: 3 Sep 2015 Last revised: 4 Sep 2015

See all articles by Julia Ponomareva

Julia Ponomareva

Bocconi University

Anna Sokolova

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow)

Date Written: September 3, 2015

Abstract

This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were also provided. The key groups of methods were formed including scanning and monitoring; data analysis; modelling, clustering, interpretation; expert procedures. The stages for identification of WS are proposed. A case study devoted to WS for the analysis of technology development of bioprinting is considered.

Keywords: weak signals, wild cards, bioprinting, foresight, scanning, analysis

JEL Classification: O31, O32, O33.

Suggested Citation

Ponomareva, Julia and Sokolova, Anna, The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods (September 3, 2015). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 46/STI/2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2655520 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2655520

Julia Ponomareva

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

Anna Sokolova (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow) ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

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