63 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2015 Last revised: 9 Feb 2017
Date Written: February 8, 2017
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment in the medium run for an unbalanced panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Low mortgage spreads are associated with an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth, highlighting the importance of credit supply shocks. Economic forecasters systematically over-predict GDP growth at the end of household debt booms, suggesting an important role of flawed expectations formation. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt.
Keywords: debt, business cycle, crises, household debt, GDP forecast
JEL Classification: D12, E2, E3, G2
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Mian, Atif R. and Sufi, Amir and Verner, Emil, Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide (February 8, 2017). Fama-Miller Working Paper; Chicago Booth Research Paper; Kreisman Working Papers Series in Housing Law and Policy No. 38. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2655804 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2655804