Effects of Parental Leave Policies on Female Career and Fertility Choices

46 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2015

See all articles by Shintaro Yamaguchi

Shintaro Yamaguchi

University of Tokyo - Graduate School of Economics

Date Written: August 1, 2015

Abstract

This paper constructs and estimates a dynamic discrete choice structural model of labor supply, occupational choice, and fertility in the presence of parental leave legislation. The estimated structural model is used for an ex ante evaluation of parental leave expansions that change the duration of job protection and/or the replacement rate of the cash benefit. Counterfactual simulation results indicate that a one-year job protection significantly increased maternal employment and earnings, but extending it from one to three years and offering cash benefits have little effect. Overall, parental leave policies have little effect on fertility. I also find that policy effects are stronger for younger cohorts who observe a policy change several years before childbearing, because they adjust their career paths accordingly as soon as the policy change.

Suggested Citation

Yamaguchi, Shintaro, Effects of Parental Leave Policies on Female Career and Fertility Choices (August 1, 2015). Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER) Paper No. E-96. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2655884

Shintaro Yamaguchi (Contact Author)

University of Tokyo - Graduate School of Economics ( email )

Tokyo
Japan

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