Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration Out of Africa

42 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2001

See all articles by Timothy J. Hatton

Timothy J. Hatton

University of Essex - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Jeffrey G. Williamson

Harvard University - Department of Economics, Laird Bell Professor of Economics, Emeritus; Honorary Fellow, University of Wisconsin - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2001

Abstract

Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and demographic booms in the low-wage sending regions (directly augmenting the supply of potential movers as well as indirectly making already-measured employment conditions less attractive). These two features are even more prominent in Africa today, but do or can Africans respond to them with the same elasticity as in the days of "free" migration? Our new estimates of net migration and labor market performance for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa suggest that exactly the same forces are at work driving African across-border migration today. Rapid growth in the cohort of young potential migrants, population pressure on the resource base, and poor economic performance are the main forces driving African migration. A century ago, more modest demographic forces in Europe were accompanied by strong catching-up economic growth in the low-wage emigrant regions, followed by a slowdown in already-modest demographic growth. Yet, migrations were still mass. In Africa today, economic growth has faltered, its economies have fallen further behind the high-wage OECD leaders, and there is a demographic speed up in the making. Our estimates suggest that the pressure on emigration out of Africa will intensify, manifested in part by a growing demand for entrance into high-wage OECD labor markets.

Keywords: International migration, demographic pressure, African population

JEL Classification: F22, J11, J61, 015

Suggested Citation

Hatton, Timothy J. and Williamson, Jeffrey G., Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration Out of Africa (January 2001). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=265628 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.265628

Timothy J. Hatton (Contact Author)

University of Essex - Department of Economics ( email )

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Jeffrey G. Williamson

Harvard University - Department of Economics, Laird Bell Professor of Economics, Emeritus ( email )

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Honorary Fellow, University of Wisconsin - Department of Economics

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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