Transition with Labor Supply

72 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2001

See all articles by Tito Boeri

Tito Boeri

Bocconi University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: February 2001

Abstract

Ten years after the start of transition, there are many puzzles we still have to live with. Why did all countries experience strong declines in output at the outset of economic transformations and most of them are slowly, if at all, recovering from this "transitional recession"? How can these L-shaped patterns of GDP be reconciled with a shift from a less efficient to a more efficient economic system? Why were (and still are) unemployment pools of these countries so desperately stagnant in spite of the radical transformations going on? Why was unemployment dynamics so much different between, on the one hand, the Czech Republic, and, on the other hand, the other members of the Visegrad group? Why were employment-to-output elasticities negligible in Russia compared not only with Western countries, but also with the countries now knocking the door of the European Union? In this paper it is argued that many of these puzzles can be explained by simply taking on board labor supply. Surprisingly enough, the literature on the economics of transition has devoted little, if any, attention to labor force participation decisions. In the models of the optimal speed of transition (OST) literature, the labor force is generally assumed to be fixed. All the action takes place on the demand side. No mention is made to labor supply factors, the unsustainability of full employment at low wages in the absence of coercive power and the role played by non-employment benefits in inducing large flows to inactivity. The model developed in this paper allows for labor supply to play a key role in the transition by introducing three basic mechanisms in the Harris-Todaro type of models of the OST literature. First, room is made for frictions in the shift of workers from the old to the new sector. Second, job-to-job shifts are not ruled out: employers are free to choose their recruitment pool, that is, whether to hire from the unemployment ranks or among the employees of the old sector. Third, those without a job are allowed to make a non-trivial decision between searching or not searching a job. The model generates locking-in effects at the micro-level, and unemployment persistence at the aggregate level. The initial steps of transition are crucial in determining the importance of these locking-in effects. When the initial market-oriented reforms promote large flows from the old-sector to inactivity, it is very likely that employers in the new sector will be reluctant to hire from the ranks of the unemployed, as many of those without a job are not actually seeking. Low job finding probabilities in turn induce "discouraged worker" effects thereby those without a job do not actively seek a job, as their outside opportunity looks more appealing than spending a long time in job search efforts, having a very low chance to succeed. The model has important policy implications. Among these, it suggests that the emphasis placed by the OST literature on measures winning the resistance of insiders to restructuring, e.g., "buying-off" workers in the old sector, is ill-placed and possibly conducive to wrong policy prescriptions. By putting in place at the outset overly-generous non-employment benefit schemes, conditions were created for having stagnant unemployment pools throughout the transition. Long-duration unemployment made these promises unsustainable because generous non-employment benefits had been conceived for unemployment of a shorter-duration. Moreover, this tightening did not significantly reduce the duration of unemployment. Rather than starting with generous non-employment benefits and then subsequently cutting them down, the right sequence should have been the other way round.

Keywords: Transition, matching, non-employment benefits

JEL Classification: J21, J6, P2

Suggested Citation

Boeri, Tito, Transition with Labor Supply (February 2001). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=265636

Tito Boeri (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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