Forecasting German Car Sales Using Google Data and Multivariate Models

International Journal of Production Economics, Forthcoming

48 Pages Posted: 11 Sep 2015

See all articles by Dean Fantazzini

Dean Fantazzini

Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University; National Research University Higher School of Economics

Zhamal Toktamysova

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: September 9, 2015

Abstract

Long-term forecasts are of key importance for the car industry due to the lengthy period of time required for the development and production processes. With this in mind, this paper proposes new multivariate models to forecast monthly car sales data using economic variables and Google online search data. An out-of-sample forecasting comparison with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead was implemented using the monthly sales of ten car brands in Germany for the period from 2001M1 to 2014M6. Models including Google search data statistically outperformed the competing models for most of the car brands and forecast horizons. These results also hold after several robustness checks which consider nonlinear models, different out-of-sample forecasts, directional accuracy, the variability of Google data and additional car brands.

Keywords: Car Sales, Forecasting, Google, Google Trends, Global Financial Crisis, Great Recession

JEL Classification: C22, C32, C52, C53, L62

Suggested Citation

Fantazzini, Dean and Toktamysova, Zhamal, Forecasting German Car Sales Using Google Data and Multivariate Models (September 9, 2015). International Journal of Production Economics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2658187

Dean Fantazzini (Contact Author)

Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University ( email )

GSP-2, Leninskie Gory
Moscow, 119992
Russia
+7 495 5105256 (Phone)
+7 495 5105267 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: https://sites.google.com/site/deanfantazzini/

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://www.hse.ru/org/persons/11532644

Zhamal Toktamysova

National Research University Higher School of Economics - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Shabolovka 26
Moscow, 119049
Russia

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