47 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2015
Date Written: September 9, 2015
What are the prospects for long-run economic growth?, the present study looks at a more recently launched hypothesis, which I label Singularity. The idea here is that rapid growth in computation and artificial intelligence will cross some boundary or Singularity after which economic growth will accelerate sharply as an ever-accelerating pace of improvements cascade through the economy. The paper develops a growth model that features Singularity and presents several tests of whether we are rapidly approaching Singularity. The key question for Singularity is the substitutability between information and conventional inputs. The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.
Keywords: Superintelligence, Artificial intelligence, Economic growth, Computers
JEL Classification: O4, O47, O31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Nordhaus, William D., Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth (September 9, 2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2658259 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2658259
By E. Weyl