Do Americans Live Longer and Healthier? Forecasting Healthy Life Expectancy by Including Dynamic Evolutions of Mortality, Health, and Macroeconomic Variables

33 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2015

See all articles by Ying Yang

Ying Yang

University of Rhode Island - Department of Economics; University of Rhode Island - College of Business Administration

Anja De Waegenaere

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & OR, Netspar, and CentER

Bertrand Melenberg

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER)

Date Written: June 23, 2014

Abstract

We study the evolution in remaining life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of the U.S. population from 1972 to 2020, distinguished by genders. We propose a methodology to forecast life expectancy and healthy life expectancy by incorporating the joint future developments of age-specific mortality and health prevalence rates, GDP, and the unemployment rate. We also quantify the uncertainties of (healthy) life expectancy taking into account the joint evolution of mortality, health, and macroeconomic variables. Finally, we make a comparison with the corresponding models without GDP and the unemployment rate or without taking into account the joint development of mortality and health.

Keywords: Life Expectancy, healthy life expectancy, uncertainties

JEL Classification: I12, J14, C32

Suggested Citation

Yang, Ying and De Waegenaere, Anja M.B. and Melenberg, Bertrand, Do Americans Live Longer and Healthier? Forecasting Healthy Life Expectancy by Including Dynamic Evolutions of Mortality, Health, and Macroeconomic Variables (June 23, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2662978 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2662978

Ying Yang (Contact Author)

University of Rhode Island - Department of Economics ( email )

Chaffe Hall
10 Chaffe Road #3
Kingston, RI 02881
United States
401-874-5896 (Phone)

University of Rhode Island - College of Business Administration ( email )

Kingston, RI 02881
United States

Anja M.B. De Waegenaere

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & OR, Netspar, and CentER ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Bertrand Melenberg

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER) ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2730 (Phone)

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