The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective.Is it that Great?

38 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2015

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2015

Abstract

The Great Moderation (GM) is widely documented in the literature as one of the most important changes in the US business cycle. All the papers that analyze it use post WWII data. In this paper, for the first time we place the GM in a long historical perspective, stretching back a century and a half, which includes secular changes in the economic structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of WWII and in the mid-eighties, showing that the GM still holds in the longer perspective. Furthermore, we show that GM volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and forecasters.

Keywords: Business cycle, Secular changes, Structural Breaks, volatility

JEL Classification: C22, E32

Suggested Citation

Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores and Gómez-Loscos, Ana and Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective.Is it that Great? (September 2015). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10825, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2663403

Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas (Contact Author)

University of Zaragoza ( email )

Gran Via 2
Zaragoza, 50005
Spain

Ana Gómez-Loscos

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

Banco de España

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

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