Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
24 Pages Posted: 11 Apr 2001
Date Written: February 2001
This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade balance, U.K. inflation and real national income, and the U.S./U.K. exchange rate help clarify the issues involved.
Keywords: Econometrics, Economics, Forecasting, Models, Uncertainty.
JEL Classification: C1, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation