Predicting Harvestability of Existing Pinus Radiata Stands: 2013-2030 Projections of Stumpage Profits from Pre-90 and Post-89 Forests

Motu Working Paper No. 15-16

49 Pages Posted: 3 Oct 2015

See all articles by Matt Thirkettle

Matt Thirkettle

Cornell University - Department of Economics

Suzi Kerr

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust

Date Written: September 25, 2015

Abstract

Our goal is to predict which forests are harvestable in New Zealand each year, and the stumpage profits attained from harvesting. We begin by documenting how Motu updates the 2008 Land Use in Rural New Zealand map to match the 2013 National Exotic Forest Description planted forest dataset. We then produce forest stand maps for the years 2013-2030. Last, we describe how we assign stumpage profits, and the distribution of stumpage profits over the simulation years (2013-2030). We find that stumpage profits are: always positive; increasing through time (2013-2030); lowest (on average) in the West Coast; and highest (on average) in the North Island East Coast. Our results suggest that forest owners will always harvest given that they have already incurred planting and growing costs. Limitations in data, including the need to use averages of yields and some costs across wide areas, and the effect of market conditions, and their role in determining the pace and average age at which the estate is harvested, mean that the true distribution of stumpage profits is likely to be wider. Those most likely to not harvest would be those with low estimated stumpage.

Keywords: Forestry, New Zealand, land use, stumpage profits, harvesting

JEL Classification: Q23, Q55

Suggested Citation

Thirkettle, Matt and Kerr, Suzi, Predicting Harvestability of Existing Pinus Radiata Stands: 2013-2030 Projections of Stumpage Profits from Pre-90 and Post-89 Forests (September 25, 2015). Motu Working Paper No. 15-16. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2668389 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2668389

Matt Thirkettle

Cornell University - Department of Economics ( email )

414 Uris Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853-7601
United States

Suzi Kerr (Contact Author)

Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust ( email )

Level 1, 93 Cuba Street
P.O. Box 24390
Wellington, 6142
New Zealand
+64 4 383 4250 (Phone)
+64 4 383 4270 (Fax)

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