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Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Works

56 Pages Posted: 7 Oct 2015 Last revised: 27 Nov 2017

Söhnke M. Bartram

Warwick Business School - Department of Finance

Mark Grinblatt

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area; Yale University - International Center for Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: October 7, 2015

Abstract

To assess stock market informational efficiency with minimal data snooping, we take the view of a statistician with little knowledge of finance. The statistician uses techniques like least squares to estimate peer-implied fair values from the market values of replicating portfolios with the same accounting statements as the company being valued. Divergence of a company’s peer-implied value estimate from its market value represents mispricing, motivating a convergence trade that earns risk-adjusted returns of up to 10% per year and is economically significant for both large and small cap firms. The rate of convergence decays to zero over the subsequent 34 months.

Keywords: Valuation, asset pricing, market efficiency, fundamental analysis, Point-in-Time, Theil-Sen

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14

Suggested Citation

Bartram, Söhnke M. and Grinblatt, Mark, Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Works (October 7, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2670839 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2670839

Söhnke Bartram (Contact Author)

Warwick Business School - Department of Finance ( email )

Coventry, CV4 7AL
United Kingdom
+44 (24) 7657 4168 (Phone)
+1 425 952 1070 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/sbartram/

Mark Grinblatt

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Finance Area ( email )

Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481
United States
310-825-1098 (Phone)
310-206-5455 (Fax)

Yale University - International Center for Finance

Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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