Agnostic Fundamental Analysis Works

Abstract

To assess stock market informational efficiency with minimal data snooping, we take the view of a statistician with little knowledge of finance. The statistician uses techniques like least squares to estimate peer-implied fair values from the market values of replicating portfolios with the same accounting statements as the company being valued. Divergence of a company’s peer-implied value estimate from its market value represents mispricing, motivating a convergence trade that earns risk-adjusted returns of up to 10% per year and is economically significant for both large and small cap firms. The rate of convergence decays to zero over the subsequent 34 months.

Keywords: Valuation, asset pricing, market efficiency, fundamental analysis, Point-in-Time, Theil-Sen

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14