Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

41 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2015

See all articles by Karen Clay

Karen Clay

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Joshua Lewis

University of Montreal

Edson Severnini

Carnegie Mellon University

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Abstract

This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic as a natural experiment to examine whether air pollution affects susceptibility to infectious disease. The empirical analysis combines the sharp timing of the pandemic with large cross-city differences in baseline pollution measures based on coal-fired electricity generating capacity for a sample 183 American cities. The findings suggest that air pollution exacerbated the impact of the pandemic. Proximity to World War I military bases and baseline city health conditions also contributed to pandemic severity. The effects of air pollution are quantitatively important. Had coal-fired capacity in above-median cities been reduced to the median level, 3,400-5,860 pandemic-related infant deaths and 15,575-23,686 pandemic-related all-age deaths would have been averted. These results highlight the complementarity between air pollution and infectious disease on health, and suggest that there may be large co-benefits associated with pollution abatement policies.

Keywords: pollution, infectious disease, mortality, 1918 influenza pandemic

JEL Classification: N32, N52, I15, I18, Q53, Q56, Q58

Suggested Citation

Clay, Karen B. and Lewis, Joshua and Severnini, Edson, Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9399. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2672185

Karen B. Clay (Contact Author)

Carnegie Mellon University - H. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Joshua Lewis

University of Montreal ( email )

C.P. 6128 succursale Centre-ville
Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7
Canada

Edson Severnini

Carnegie Mellon University

Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States

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