The Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the New EU Member States

Abstract

This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. I investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with quarterly data from January 1996 to December 2011. In a first step, the pass-through estimates are derived from a dynamic panel data model through the generalized method of moments. A statistically significant exchange rate pass-through to consumer, producer and import prices is found, both in the short and long run. In a second step, I proceed to an individual analysis, country by country, and find support for an increased heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through estimates. In a third step, I assess the drivers of the estimated exchange rate pass-through coefficients and find support for a significant impact of exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, import dependence, and the output gap, as well as the global outlook.

Keywords: Inflation and prices, Exchange rate pass-through, GMM, International topics

JEL Classification: C33, E31, E42, E52, F31, O52