The Banks that Said No: Banking Relationships, Credit Supply and Productivity in the United Kingdom
55 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2015 Last revised: 17 Oct 2015
Date Written: October 9, 2015
This paper uses a large firm-level data set of UK companies and information on their pre-crisis lending relationships to identify the causal links from changes in credit supply to the real economy following the 2008 financial crisis. Controlling for demand in the product market, we find that the contraction in credit supply reduced labour productivity, wages and the capital intensity of production at the firm level. Firms experiencing adverse credit shocks were also more likely to fail, other things equal. We find that these effects are robust, statistically significant and economically large, but only when instruments based on pre-crisis banking relationships are used. We show that banking relationships were conditionally randomly assigned and were strong predictors of credit supply, such that any bias in our estimates is likely to be small.
Keywords: Credit shock, financial frictions, productivity puzzle, firm-level data
JEL Classification: D21, D22, D24, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation