Atmospheric CO2 and Surface Temperature: A Note

9 Pages Posted: 25 Oct 2015

Date Written: October 24, 2015


Deseasonalized and detrended correlation analysis of mean monthly atmospheric CO2 concentrations and mean monthly surface temperature anomalies in the sample period 1958-2015 shows a statistically significant correlation that peaks when surface temperature lags atmospheric CO2 by four months. The correlation falls monotonically when CO2 lags temperature. The results are consistent with the theoretical two-way causal relationship between these variables. The effect of surface temperature on atmospheric CO2 appears to be stronger and it operates at a greater lag than the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 on surface temperature.

Keywords: global warming, climate change, stochastic process, moving decadal analysis, fossil fuel emissions, carbon dioxide, surface temperature, detrended analysis, agw, cagw, human emissions, fossil fuels, Hadcrut4,natural variability, climate variables, Henry's Law, equilibrium partial pressure, CO2 contr

Suggested Citation

Munshi, Jamal, Atmospheric CO2 and Surface Temperature: A Note (October 24, 2015). Available at SSRN: or

Jamal Munshi (Contact Author)

Sonoma State University ( email )

1801 East Cotati Avenue
Rohnert Park, CA 94928
United States

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