65 Pages Posted: 27 Oct 2015 Last revised: 9 Aug 2016
Date Written: August 8, 2016
We develop a structural model where joint dynamics of aggregate consumption and asset-specific dividends are governed by correlated state-variables. The correlation structure implies distinct cross-sectional exposures of dividends to long history of consumption growth rates, resulting in variation of consumption beta. Such variation rationalizes momentum crashes per Daniel and Moskowitz (2015), as Winner's consumption beta remains low after the economy recovers from a downturn, while Loser's consumption beta grows quickly. Emerging from a recession, the momentum strategy thus reduces in consumption beta and risk-premia. Variation in beta also explains tendency of momentum to concentrate in stocks with particular styles.
Keywords: Momentum, Cross-Sectional Dynamics, Long-Run Risk, Bayesian Filtering
JEL Classification: G12, C32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
By Nick Baltas
By Drew Knowles