Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

Risk, Race, & Recidivism: Predictive Bias and Disparate Impact

55 Pages Posted: 8 Nov 2015 Last revised: 15 Jun 2016

Jennifer L. Skeem

University of California, Berkeley

Christopher T. Lowenkamp

Government of the United States of America - Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

Date Written: June 14, 2016

Abstract

One way to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety is to use risk assessment instruments in sentencing and corrections. Although these instruments figure prominently in current reforms, critics argue that benefits in crime control will be offset by an adverse effect on racial minorities. Based on a sample of 34,794 federal offenders, we examine the relationships among race, risk assessment (the Post Conviction Risk Assessment [PCRA]), and future arrest. First, application of well-established principles of psychological science revealed little evidence of test bias for the PCRA — the instrument strongly predicts arrest for both Black and White offenders and a given score has essentially the same meaning — i.e., same probability of recidivism — across groups. Second, Black offenders obtain higher average PCRA scores than White offenders (d= 0.34; 13.5% non-overlap in groups’ scores), so some applications could create disparate impact. Third, most (66%) of the racial difference in PCRA scores is attributable to criminal history — which is already embedded in sentencing guidelines. Finally, criminal history is not a proxy for race, but instead mediates the relationship between race and future arrest . Data are more helpful than rhetoric, if the goal is to improve practice at this opportune moment in history.

Keywords: risk assessment, race, test bias, disparities, sentencing

Suggested Citation

Skeem, Jennifer L. and Lowenkamp, Christopher T., Risk, Race, & Recidivism: Predictive Bias and Disparate Impact (June 14, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2687339 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2687339

Jennifer L. Skeem (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

120 Haviland Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720-7400
United States

Christopher T. Lowenkamp

Government of the United States of America - Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts

One Columbus Circle N.E.
Washington, DC 20544
United States

Paper statistics

Downloads
1,733
Rank
7,373
Abstract Views
7,169