Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: Ex Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies Using DSSAT and IMPACT

84 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2016

See all articles by Sherman Robinson

Sherman Robinson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Daniel Mason-D'Croz

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Shahnila Islam

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Nicola Cenacchi

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Bernardo Creamer

Universidad de las Américas (UDLA)

Arthur Gueneau

ENGIE

Guy Hareau

International Potato Center

Ulrich Kleinwechter

Government of the Federal Republic of Germany - German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture

Khondoker Mottaleb

International Rice Research Institute - Agricultural Economics, Social Sciences Division

Swamikannu Nedumaran

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

Ricky Robertson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Mark W. Rosegrant

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Gbegbelegbe Sika

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)

Timothy Sulser

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Keith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: October 9, 2015

Abstract

Achieving and maintaining global food security is challenged by changes in population, income, and climate, among other drivers. Assessing these challenges and possible solutions over the coming decades requires a rigorous multidisciplinary approach. To answer this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has developed a system of linked simulation models of global agriculture to do long-run scenario analysis of the effects of climate change and various adaptation strategies. This system includes the core International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which is linked to water models (global hydrology, water basin management, and water stress on crops) and crop simulation models.

The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight program, a CGIAR initiative led by IFPRI in collaboration with other CGIAR research centers, is working to improve these tools and conducting ex ante assessments of promising technologies, investments, and policies under alternative global futures. Baseline projections from IMPACT set the foundation with the latest outlook on long-term trends in food demand and agricultural production based on projected changes in population, income, technology, and climate. On top of the baseline, scenarios are developed for assessing the impacts of promising climate adapted technologies for maize, wheat, rice, potatoes, sorghum, groundnut, and cassava on yields, area, production, trade, and prices in 2050 at a variety of scales. Yield gains from adoption of the selected technologies vary by technology and region, but are found to be generally comparable in scale to (and thus able to offset) the adverse effects of climate change under a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5). Even more important in this long-term climate change scenario are effects of growth in population, income, and investments in overall technological change, highlighting the importance of linked assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers to better understand climate impacts and responses. For all crops in the selected countries, climate change impacts are negative with the baseline technology. All new technologies have beneficial effects on yields under climate change, with combined traits (drought and heat tolerance) showing the greatest benefit.

Keywords: agricultural research, climate change, yields, productivity, adaptation, food security, water, interdisciplinary research, IMPACT model, DSSAT model, Climate-smart agriculture

Suggested Citation

Robinson, Sherman and Mason-D'Croz, Daniel and Islam, Shahnila and Cenacchi, Nicola and Creamer, Bernardo and Gueneau, Arthur and Hareau, Guy and Kleinwechter, Ulrich and Mottaleb, Khondoker and Nedumaran, Swamikannu and Robertson, Ricky and Rosegrant, Mark W. and Sika, Gbegbelegbe and Sulser, Timothy and Wiebe, Keith, Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture: Ex Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies Using DSSAT and IMPACT (October 9, 2015). IFPRI Discussion Paper 1469. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2688063

Sherman Robinson (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Daniel Mason-D'Croz

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Shahnila Islam

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States
202-862-5600 (Phone)
202-467-4439 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifpri.org/

Nicola Cenacchi

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Bernardo Creamer

Universidad de las Américas (UDLA) ( email )

de los colimes, Av. De los Granados
Quito, 170137
Ecuador
(+593)(2) 3981000 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.udla.edu.ec/

Arthur Gueneau

ENGIE ( email )

Tour T1 – 1 place Samuel de Champlain
Faubourg de l’Arche
Paris La Défense cedex, 92930
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.engie.com

Guy Hareau

International Potato Center ( email )

Avenida La Molina 1895
Lima, 1558
Peru

HOME PAGE: http://www.cipotato.org/

Ulrich Kleinwechter

Government of the Federal Republic of Germany - German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture ( email )

Berlin, 11055
Germany

Khondoker Mottaleb

International Rice Research Institute - Agricultural Economics, Social Sciences Division ( email )

LosBaños
Laguna
Philippines

Swamikannu Nedumaran

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT) ( email )

Nairobi, 39063
Kenya

HOME PAGE: http://www.icrisat.org/

Ricky Robertson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Mark W. Rosegrant

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifpri.org/srstaff/rosegram.htm

Gbegbelegbe Sika

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) ( email )

PMB 5320, Oyo Road, Ibadan
Oyo State, Dar es Salaam 200001
Tanzania

Timothy Sulser

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Keith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States
+1 202-862-5600 (Phone)
+1 202-467-4439 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifpri.org/

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