Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

56 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Petr Havlík

Petr Havlík

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Hugo Valin

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Mykola Gusti

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Erwin Schmid

Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU) - Institute for Sustainable Economic Development

David Leclère

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nicklas Forsell

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Mario Herrero

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)

Nikolay Khabarov

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Aline Mosnier

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Matthew Cantele

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Michael Obersteiner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)

Date Written: November 5, 2015

Abstract

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2?C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.

Keywords: Energy and Mining, Climate Change and Health, Science of Climate Change, Global Environment, Climate Change and Environment, Energy and Environment, Inequality, Energy Demand

Suggested Citation

Havlík, Petr and Valin, Hugo and Gusti, Mykola and Schmid, Erwin and Leclère, David and Forsell, Nicklas and Herrero, Mario and Khabarov, Nikolay and Mosnier, Aline and Cantele, Matthew and Obersteiner, Michael, Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors (November 5, 2015). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7477. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2688375

Petr Havlík (Contact Author)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Hugo Valin

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Mykola Gusti

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Erwin Schmid

Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU) - Institute for Sustainable Economic Development

Vienna, A-1200
Austria

David Leclère

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Nicklas Forsell

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Mario Herrero

Government of the Commonwealth of Australia - CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)

41 Boggo Rd
Dutton Park, Queensland
Australia

Nikolay Khabarov

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Aline Mosnier

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Matthew Cantele

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Michael Obersteiner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) ( email )

Josefstädter Straße 39
1080 Vienna
Austria

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