Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation Under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets

47 Pages Posted: 14 May 2001

See all articles by David Miles

David Miles

Imperial College Business School; The Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Aleš Černý

Bayes Business School, City, University of London

Date Written: March 2001

Abstract

This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the steady state impact of different pension arrangements in an environment where financial markets are less than perfect. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of uninsurable risk that are allocated in different ways by different types of pension system and where there are imperfections in financial markets (eg transactions costs or adverse selection). This paper calculates the expected welfare of agents in different economies where in the steady state the importance of unfunded, state pensions differs. We estimate how the optimal level of unfunded, state pensions depends on rate of return and income risks and also upon the actuarial fairness of annuity contracts. We focus on the case of Japan where aging is rapid and unfunded pensions are currently generous.

Keywords: Pensions, Portfolio Allocation, Demographics, Annuities, Risk-Sharing

JEL Classification: H55, D91, G22, J14.

Suggested Citation

Miles, David Kenneth and Černý, Aleš, Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation Under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets (March 2001). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 441, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=268968 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.268968

David Kenneth Miles (Contact Author)

Imperial College Business School ( email )

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The Bank of England ( email )

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London EC2R 8AH
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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Aleš Černý

Bayes Business School, City, University of London ( email )

Northampton Square
London, EC1V 0HB
United Kingdom

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