Abstract

https://ssrn.com/abstract=2692457
 


 



Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis


Neil R. Ericsson


Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of International Finance (IFDP) - Trade and Financial Studies Section

2015-11-17

FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1152

Abstract:     
Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee's views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC's meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC's deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington's analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC's views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff's Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook's public release.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 28

Keywords: Autometrics, bias, Fed, financial crisis, FOMC, forecasts, GDP, Great Recession, Greenbook, impulse indicator saturation, projections, Tealbook, United States

JEL Classification: C53, E58


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Date posted: November 18, 2015  

Suggested Citation

Ericsson, Neil R., Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis (2015-11-17). FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1152. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2692457 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2015.1152

Contact Information

Neil R. Ericsson (Contact Author)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve - Division of International Finance (IFDP) - Trade and Financial Studies Section ( email )
20th St. and Constitution Ave.
Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-3709 (Phone)
202-736-5638 (Fax)
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