Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis

28 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2015

See all articles by Neil R. Ericsson

Neil R. Ericsson

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: 2015-11-17

Abstract

Stekler and Symington (2016) construct indexes that quantify the Federal Open Market Committee's views about the U.S. economy, as expressed in the minutes of the FOMC's meetings. These indexes provide insights on the FOMC's deliberations, especially at the onset of the Great Recession. The current paper complements Stekler and Symington's analysis by showing that their indexes reveal relatively minor bias in the FOMC's views when the indexes are reinterpreted as forecasts. Additionally, these indexes provide a proximate mechanism for inferring the Fed staff's Greenbook forecasts of the U.S. real GDP growth rate, years before the Greenbook's public release.

Keywords: Autometrics, bias, Fed, financial crisis, FOMC, forecasts, GDP, Great Recession, Greenbook, impulse indicator saturation, projections, Tealbook, United States

JEL Classification: C53, E58

Suggested Citation

Ericsson, Neil R., Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis (2015-11-17). FRB International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1152, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2692457 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2015.1152

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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

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