Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War Ii

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 221

24 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2001

See all articles by Bruno S. Frey

Bruno S. Frey

CREMA; University of Basel

Marcel Kucher

University of Zurich - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 1999

Abstract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper, we analyse government bond prices of Germany and Austria traded on the Swiss bourse during WWII. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and the loss and gain of national sovereignty. Other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices: The most prominent example is Germany?s capitulation in 1945. The analysis of financial markets provides a fruitful method to evaluate the importance contemporaries attached to historical events.

Keywords: Financial markets, economic history, WWII, Europe, cliometrics

JEL Classification: G1, N24, Z00

Suggested Citation

Frey, Bruno S. and Kucher, Marcel, Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect World War Ii (December 1999). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 221. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=269462

Bruno S. Frey (Contact Author)

CREMA ( email )

Südstrasse 11
Zurich, CH 8008
Switzerland
+41 44 380 00 78 (Phone)

University of Basel ( email )

Peter Merian-Weg 6
Basel, 4002
Switzerland

Marcel Kucher

University of Zurich - Department of Economics ( email )

Zuerich, 8006
Switzerland
+41 1 634 37 32 (Phone)
+41 1 634 49 07 (Fax)

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