A Framework for Predicting Emerging Technology Adoption

40 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2015 Last revised: 5 Jan 2022

See all articles by Theophanis C. Stratopoulos

Theophanis C. Stratopoulos

University of Waterloo - School of Accounting and Finance

Victor Xiaoqi Wang

California State University, Long Beach

Date Written: May 8, 2016

Abstract

Blockchain, big data, and internet of things are just a few of the over 200 technologies introduced in the last 15 years. Technology adoption/diffusion has significant implications for adopting firms, suppliers of these technologies, and investors. Approaching technology adoption from a strategic standpoint (i.e., a potential source of competitive advantage); the objective of this study is to develop a framework for predicting technology diffusion using publicly available data. The proposed framework integrates elements from the technology diffusion cycle, hype cycles of emerging technologies, and resource-based view (RBV). We apply the methodology on cloud computing and ERP, using the following four sources of data: Google Trends for web search interest, LexisNexis for news stories, Gartner Hype Cycles for emerging technologies, and number of book titles. All sources produce comparable results. For ERP, we rely on prior literature on IT business value to show that diffusion related predictions are consistent with evidence from empirical studies. In addition to the contribution to the literatures on technology diffusion and RBV; one of the main practical contributions of this study is that the proposed methodology is relatively easy to implement. Stakeholders can use readily available data to make their own predictions

Keywords: Technology adoption, competitive advantage, duration, RBV, hype cycle, ERP, cloud computing

JEL Classification: O3, L1

Suggested Citation

Stratopoulos, Theophanis C. and Wang, Victor Xiaoqi, A Framework for Predicting Emerging Technology Adoption (May 8, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2695858 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2695858

Theophanis C. Stratopoulos (Contact Author)

University of Waterloo - School of Accounting and Finance ( email )

200 University Avenue West
Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1 N2L 3G1
Canada
519-888-4567 x35943 (Phone)

Victor Xiaoqi Wang

California State University, Long Beach ( email )

1250 Bellflower Blvd
Long Beach, CA 90840
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
568
Abstract Views
3,881
rank
71,538
PlumX Metrics